Predicting top 5 upsets in college football’s next season

Anticipating significant shifts in college football’s upcoming season involves meticulously analyzing team dynamics, schedule strength, and historical underdog performances to forecast potential upsets that could reshape conference standings and playoff contention, offering fans unexpected thrills and challenges for top-ranked teams.

As the anticipation builds for another electrifying college football season, the debate invariably turns to which giants might tumble and which dark horses could emerge. While expert analysis often focuses on championship contenders, the true intrigue often lies in predicting the top 5 upsets in the upcoming college football season. These aren’t just games; these are moments where history is made, reputations are forged, and the script of a season is dramatically rewritten, captivating fans and shaking up the national landscape.

The anatomy of an upset: what makes a team vulnerable?

Understanding what makes a top-ranked team susceptible to an upset requires a deep dive into various factors beyond pure talent. Often, it’s a confluence of circumstances rather than a single glaring weakness. Even the most dominant programs can find themselves in precarious positions.

A primary factor is often complacency. When a team has enjoyed a long winning streak or has been consistently ranked high, there can be a subtle but dangerous shift in mindset. They might underestimate a seemingly weaker opponent, leading to a lack of complete focus or intensity. This isn’t always intentional, but it can manifest in sloppy play, unforced errors, or a general lack of urgency that an underdog can exploit. Another critical element is the schedule. A team coming off an emotionally draining rivalry game or facing a challenging road trip immediately after a tough contest can be physically and mentally fatigued. This “trap game” scenario is a classic precursor to an upset, as top teams often aren’t at their peak performance when facing lesser-known opponents in less glamorous matchups.

Key vulnerability indicators

• Road game fatigue: Long travel, hostile crowds, and playing in an unfamiliar environment can drain even the most conditioned athletes.
• Post-bye week rust: Sometimes, the rhythm of competition is broken, and a team might start slowly after a week off, allowing an opponent to gain an early lead.
• Mid-season slump: Injuries, academic issues, or internal team dynamics can lead to a dip in performance that isn’t immediately obvious to outsiders.
• Quarterback pressure: A young or inexperienced quarterback, especially under heavy pressure from a blitzing defense, can be a major liability, leading to turnovers.

Injuries, particularly to key players, are also a massive component. Losing a starting quarterback, a dominant defensive lineman, or a top wide receiver can significantly alter a team’s offensive or defensive capabilities. While backups are often talented, they may lack the experience or chemistry with the rest of the unit, creating exploitable weaknesses. Furthermore, coaching strategy plays a pivotal role. A highly predictable offense or a defense that struggles with adjustments can be picked apart by a well-prepared underdog. Innovative game plans from coaches of lesser teams often catch elite programs off guard, particularly if they rely heavily on their talent to win individual matchups without adapting.

Finally, special teams often get overlooked but can swing a game. Missed field goals, botched punts, or poor kick coverage can give an underdog crucial field position or even direct scoring opportunities. These “hidden yardage” plays can be the difference-makers when two teams are otherwise evenly matched on the scoreboard.

Upset prediction process: how we identify potential shocks

Our methodology for identifying potential upsets goes far beyond simply looking at rankings and preseason hype. It’s a comprehensive process that blends statistical analysis with qualitative assessments, drawing on years of observing college football’s dynamic nature. Think of it as investigative journalism for sports, digging deep into the narratives and numbers that aren’t immediately apparent.

We begin by meticulously scrutinizing schedules for potential “trap games.” These are contests where an elite team might be looking ahead to a bigger opponent or playing a less exciting opponent right after a high-stakes matchup. Dates, locations, and preceding/succeeding games are all vital. For instance, a top-5 team on the road in a raucous environment against a spirited underdog, just before their biggest conference rival, screams “upset alert.” The emotional and physical toll of the schedule is a powerful, yet often underappreciated, factor.

Data-driven insights for forecasting

• Advanced analytics: We utilize advanced metrics such as Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate, and Havoc Rate to identify statistical anomalies or burgeoning strengths in underdog teams.
• Recruiting vs. development: While recruiting rankings are important, we look for teams that consistently overperform their recruiting profiles, indicating superior coaching and player development.
• Coaching tendencies: Analyzing head coach tendencies under pressure, their historical ability to prepare for big games, and their willingness to take risks.
• Statistical trends: Identifying trends in turnover margins, red zone efficiency, and third-down conversions, which are often indicative of a team’s true character.

Beyond schedules, we delve into team dynamics. This involves looking beyond traditional stats to assess things like team chemistry, leadership within the locker room, and how a team responds to adversity. Are there internal issues brewing? Are key players fully healthy or playing through injuries? Sometimes, the subtle signs of unrest or declining morale can be the most telling. We also pay close attention to quarterback play. A hot quarterback on an underdog team, especially one with a strong running game, can be incredibly dangerous. Conversely, a struggling or turnover-prone signal-caller on a favored team can be their undoing. The quarterback position often amplifies strengths and weaknesses more than any other.

Finally, we assess “intangibles”—factors that can’t be quantified but are undeniably influential. This includes things like home-field advantage in truly intimidating venues, a team playing with a chip on its shoulder after a disappointing start, or a program experiencing a surge of momentum under a new coach. These elements, while subjective, often fuel the belief and intensity required to pull off a monumental upset. It’s about combining the cold, hard facts with the art of knowing the game.

Upset 1: Michigan State over Michigan (Big Ten Rivalry)

The Michigan State Spartans facing off against the Michigan Wolverines is always a marquee matchup in the Big Ten, steeped in rivalry and often delivering unpredictable results. This year, the stage is set for a potential upset where Michigan State, likely to be the underdog, could shock their highly-ranked rivals.

Michigan, despite its recent successes, often carries the weight of immense expectation, and sometimes, this pressure can create vulnerabilities. Our projection considers several factors. Firstly, Michigan State’s coaching staff, while potentially newer or less established than Michigan’s, often thrives in these rivalry games, using the emotional intensity to their advantage. A strong defensive line for the Spartans could disrupt Michigan’s typically robust running game, forcing them into uncomfortable passing situations. If Michigan’s quarterback, regardless of who it is, faces consistent pressure, it could lead to critical mistakes – something that upsets are often built upon. The Spartans might not have the same depth of talent as the Wolverines, but their grit and understanding of the rivalry’s magnitude usually elevate their play. Expect a highly physical contest, where Michigan State aims to control the line of scrimmage and limit big plays, turning the game into a grind where mistakes are magnified.

Why this game is ripe for an upset

• Rivalry Intensity: Historically, this series defies rankings; intense rivalry games often create an equalizer.
• Home-field Advantage: If Michigan State hosts, Spartan Stadium is known for its hostile, intimidating atmosphere, which can rattle visiting teams.
• Matching Strengths: If Michigan State’s defensive front can match or exceed Michigan’s offensive line, it neutralizes a significant Wolverine strength.
• Motivation Factor: Michigan State, often playing with a “chip on its shoulder,” is highly motivated to prove itself against its in-state foe, injecting added emotional fuel.

Another angle to consider is the potential schedule spot for Michigan. Should this game fall immediately after a tough conference road matchup or just before a clash with another highly-ranked opponent, it becomes a textbook “trap game.” The Wolverines could be physically and emotionally drained, or subtly looking ahead, providing the Spartans with the perfect opportunity to exploit any slight dip in focus or intensity. Furthermore, special teams could play a pivotal role. A blocked punt, a long kick return, or a missed field goal could easily swing momentum and critical points in a tightly contested rivalry game. Michigan State often leans on these high-impact special teams plays to close the skill gap against superior opponents. If the Spartans can create turnovers and convert them into points, it significantly shifts the probability in their favor. turnovers often directly correlate with upset victories, disrupting the favored team’s rhythm and building confidence for the underdog.

Finally, the mental game is huge in rivalry matchups. Michigan State feeds off the underdog narrative and the chance to spoil Michigan’s season. If they can get out to an early lead and force Michigan to play from behind, it could expose any vulnerabilities in the Wolverines’ mental toughness or game planning when facing unexpected adversity. The sheer willpower and emotional investment from the Spartans could be enough to push them over the edge in a game many expect them to lose. This rivalry consistently reminds us that talent parity can be temporarily negated by heart and execution.

Upset 2: Iowa over Penn State (Big Ten Battle)

The Iowa Hawkeyes have a knack for pulling off upsets, particularly at home in Kinnick Stadium, where the environment is notoriously challenging for visiting teams. This season, a clash with Penn State presents a prime opportunity for the Hawkeyes to once again surprise the college football landscape, making it a strong candidate for an upset.

Penn State, while often talented and highly-ranked, has shown susceptibility to faltering in tough road environments, especially against defensively stout opponents. Iowa’s identity under Kirk Ferentz has always been built on suffocating defense, opportunistic turnovers, and a robust running game designed to control the clock and win the field position battle. This style of play is tailor-made to frustrate high-powered offenses and keep games close, regardless of the talent disparity. If Iowa’s defense can pressure Penn State’s quarterback and disrupt their offensive rhythm, it significantly increases their chances. Their defensive backs are often among the best in the conference, capable of closing down passing lanes and forcing contested throws.

Key elements for Iowa’s potential upset

• Ferocious Defense: Iowa’s consistent top-tier defense can limit Penn State’s scoring, keeping the game low-scoring and close.
• Kinnick Stadium Magic: The unique and loud environment of Kinnick Stadium creates a significant home-field advantage, impacting visiting teams’ communication and focus.
• Opportunistic Turnovers: Iowa thrives on forcing fumbles and interceptions, converting defensive stops into offensive points, which can be crucial in tight contests.
• Off-balanced schedule: If Penn State has to face Iowa on the road during a particularly challenging stretch of their schedule, their focus might be divided, creating a classic trap scenario.

Furthermore, Iowa’s offense, despite its often-criticized conservatism, is designed to minimize mistakes and grind out possessions. Against a strong Penn State defense, this approach can be surprisingly effective. By controlling the clock and limiting offensive possessions for Penn State, Iowa can restrict their opponent’s opportunities to score. A key area will be Iowa’s ability to run the ball effectively and convert third-down opportunities, keeping their drives alive and preventing Penn State’s offense from getting into a rhythm. Their tight ends are consistently a strength, providing reliable targets in crucial situations and often creating mismatches against linebackers and safeties.

Historically, Penn State has struggled against physical, disciplined defenses that can shut down their running backs and force their quarterback to win the game single-handedly. Iowa embodies this defensive philosophy. If Iowa’s defensive line can win the battle in the trenches against Penn State’s offensive line, it sets the tone for the entire game, allowing their linebackers to roam free and make plays. The collective effort and disciplined nature of Iowa’s defensive unit is their greatest weapon. They rarely beat themselves with penalties or missed assignments, forcing opponents to earn every yard.

The mental fortitude of both teams will also be tested. For Iowa, it’s about believing they can win and executing their game plan perfectly. For Penn State, it’s about avoiding complacency and handling a hostile road environment against a team that relishes playing spoiler. If Iowa can weather an early Penn State surge and keep the game within one score heading into the fourth quarter, the pressure will mount on the Nittany Lions, raising the likelihood of a critical error that Iowa can capitalize on. The Hawkeyes are notorious for winning ugly, grinding out a victory in ways that defy traditional offensive fireworks, and this style makes them dangerous upset candidates against almost any opponent.

Upset 3: NC State over Clemson (ACC Showdown)

The NC State Wolfpack has consistently proven to be a thorn in the side of the Clemson Tigers, particularly when the game is played in Raleigh. While Clemson has dominated the ACC for years, NC State has managed to deliver some memorable punches, making this year’s matchup a prime candidate for a significant upset, especially if the game is at home for the Wolfpack.

Clemson, despite its perennial talent, has shown moments of vulnerability, particularly on offense when their quarterback play isn’t at an elite level. NC State’s defense, traditionally one of the strongest in the ACC, excels at generating pressure on the quarterback and defending the pass. Their defensive coordinator often devises complex schemes that can confuse even seasoned signal-callers, leading to sacks and turnovers. If the Wolfpack can contain Clemson’s potent wide receivers and force their quarterback to run or make quick, difficult throws, it significantly levels the playing field.

Factors favoring an NC State upset

• Stout Defense: NC State’s defensive line and secondary are often among the best in the ACC, capable of disrupting Clemson’s offense.
• Home-field Advantage: Carter-Finley Stadium can become an incredibly loud and intimidating environment for visiting teams, particularly for high-stakes games.
• Experienced Quarterback: If NC State has an experienced quarterback, they can manage the clock and make crucial throws under pressure.
• Clemson’s Offensive Struggles: Historical patterns show Clemson can sometimes struggle to put up big points against physical defenses, especially on the road.

The home-field advantage for NC State in Raleigh cannot be overstated. Carter-Finley Stadium, especially under the lights, becomes a raucous environment that can lead to false starts and communication errors for the visiting team. The Wolfpack feeds off this energy, often playing above their perceived talent level in front of their home crowd. Furthermore, NC State’s offensive identity, usually built around a complementary running game and an efficient passing attack, can be effective in keeping Clemson’s potent defensive line off balance. They often utilize play-action and misdirection to create opportunities, aiming to sustain drives and limit Clemson’s offensive possessions. The ability to convert third downs and finish drives with touchdowns, rather than field goals, will be critical.

Another crucial element is the potential for Clemson to be in a “look-ahead” spot on their schedule. If the NC State game falls immediately before or after a major national or conference showdown, it could divert some of Clemson’s focus, even subconsciously. The Wolfpack, on the other hand, will view this as their Super Bowl, their defining moment of the season, and will bring unmatched intensity. They also often benefit from playing with a chip on their shoulder, viewing themselves as underdogs even when they are a very capable team. This mental edge can translate into a more aggressive and disciplined performance.

The ability of NC State’s special teams to create big plays or pin Clemson deep in their own territory will also be a major determinant. In tight games, hidden yardage and field position become paramount. If NC State can win the special teams battle, it puts their defense in better situations and pressures Clemson’s offense. Ultimately, for NC State to pull off this upset, they need to play a nearly flawless game: minimize turnovers, win the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and capitalize on every scoring opportunity. They’ve shown they can do it before, and this year’s matchup offers another compelling opportunity to disrupt the ACC hierarchy.

Upset 4: Oklahoma over Texas (Red River Rivalry)

The Red River Rivalry between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns is perhaps the most tradition-rich and volatile game in college football, often defying expectations and rankings. This season, despite Texas’s ascendance and potential higher ranking, Oklahoma presents a very real threat to pull off an upset, particularly given the unique atmosphere of the Cotton Bowl and the emotional weight of this game.

Texas might enter the game with more national hype and a higher ranking, but the Red River Shootout is notoriously unpredictable. Oklahoma, even in seasons where they might be perceived as slightly weaker, often finds an extra gear for this matchup. Their offense, historically dynamic, can put up points in a hurry, which is crucial against a talented Texas defense. A key factor will be Oklahoma’s offensive line and their ability to protect their quarterback and establish a running game against Texas’s strong defensive front. If they can create lanes for their running backs and give their quarterback time to find open receivers, they can exploit potential weaknesses in the Longhorns’ secondary.

Why Oklahoma could deliver the upset

• Rivalry Anomaly: The Red River Rivalry routinely ignores rankings, making it a true toss-up regardless of perceived talent.
• Cotton Bowl Atmosphere: The unique split crowd in the Cotton Bowl can energize both sides, nullifying traditional home-field advantages and amplifying every play.
• Offensive Firepower: Oklahoma’s offense, known for explosive plays and high scoring, can quickly erase deficits and challenge any defense.
• Emotional Edge: Oklahoma often plays with heightened emotion and intensity in this specific game, viewing it as a season-defining moment.

The Cotton Bowl environment is unlike any other in college football, with the stadium almost perfectly split between crimson and burnt orange. This neutral-site atmosphere tends to amplify every momentum swing and big play, creating an emotionally charged environment where either team can feed off the crowd. This can truly level the playing field, removing any traditional home-field advantage. Moreover, Oklahoma’s defensive strategy will be crucial. They need to find ways to pressure Texas’s quarterback, force uncomfortable throws, and contain the Longhorns’ dynamic offensive weapons. Generating turnovers will be paramount; in a game that is often decided by a single possession, an interception or a fumble recovery can be the difference-maker. Their defensive line will need to win individual matchups to disrupt Texas’s offensive rhythm and force third-and-long situations.

Texas, coming off what could be a deep playoff run or high expectations, might feel the pressure of success, while Oklahoma, potentially playing with less external pressure, can play more freely. This mental approach can be a huge factor in intense rivalry games. The Longhorns have a history of occasionally underperforming when expectations are highest, something the Sooners will undoubtedly try to leverage. For Oklahoma to pull off the upset, they will need to execute a nearly flawless game. This means minimizing penalties, winning the turnover battle, and converting in the red zone. Historically, the team that makes fewer mistakes in the Red River Rivalry often comes out on top, regardless of who is favored on paper. The sheer unpredictable nature of this specific rivalry makes it a prime candidate for an upset every single year, and this season should be no exception.

Upset 5: Oregon State over USC (Pac-12 Showdown)

The Oregon State Beavers have consistently been a tough out, particularly at home in Corvallis, and they have developed a reputation for pulling off surprising victories against highly-ranked opponents. This season, a matchup against the USC Trojans, likely to be favored and potentially contending for a national title, provides a compelling scenario for an upset.

USC, despite its immense talent and high-powered offense, has shown vulnerabilities, especially on the defensive side of the ball and in tough road environments. Oregon State’s identity under their recent coaching has been built on a stout defense, a formidable running game, and a disciplined, physical approach that grinds opponents down. This style of play is often a nightmare for teams that prefer to play fast and rely heavily on their offense. If the Beavers can establish their running game, control the clock, and keep USC’s prolific offense off the field, it significantly increases their chances of an upset.

Reasons for potential Beaver triumph

• Corvallis Home Advantage: Reser Stadium is a challenging environment for visiting teams, known for its loud and passionate fan base.
• Physicality and Discipline: Oregon State’s team excels in the trenches and plays a disciplined, mistake-free brand of football, which can frustrate high-flying offenses.
• USC’s Defensive Vulnerabilities: USC has historically shown weaknesses on defense, especially against strong running attacks, which Oregon State can exploit.
• Trap Game Potential: If the USC game is sandwiched between other high-stakes conference games, it could lead to divided focus for the Trojans.

The atmosphere at Reser Stadium in Corvallis is hostile and can directly impact a high-flying offense like USC’s. Communication issues, false starts, and general discomfort are common for visiting teams. The Beavers thrive on this energy and use it to elevate their performance, especially on defense. Their defensive line is often stout against the run, and their linebackers are physical and adept at filling gaps. This ability to stop the run is crucial against USC, as it forces their offense into more predictable passing situations, allowing the Beavers’ defensive backs to make plays.

Oregon State’s offense, while not always flashy, is designed to be efficient and opportunistic. They work to wear down opposing defenses with their ground game, opening up play-action opportunities. Their ability to convert third downs and extend drives will be paramount in limiting USC’s offensive possessions. If the Beavers can maintain long drives and win the time of possession battle, it puts pressure on the Trojans to score quickly and efficiently on their limited chances. Red zone efficiency for Oregon State will also be key; converting scoring opportunities from field goals to touchdowns can be the difference in a tight contest.

Furthermore, the mental aspect of this game will be critical. USC might come in with a certain level of confidence or even complacency, given their talent and national standing. Oregon State, on the other hand, will view this as a statement game, a chance to prove themselves against one of the best teams in the conference and possibly the nation. They will play with a relentless effort and a never-say-die attitude that often defines upset victories. If Oregon State can force USC into early turnovers, it could completely disrupt the Trojans’ game plan and build immense confidence for the Beavers, setting the stage for a memorable upset in the Pac-12.

Frequently asked questions about college football upsets